The probability and value of a negotiated settlement in Ukraine, the risk of permanent alliances, Western misunderstanding of Taiwan, and more.

Year three

Putin's losses, Washington's ambitions, and Kyiv's need for a realistic peace

After two years under brutal Russian attack, most Ukrainians still believe their country will triumph … eventually. "A majority now believe it will take years," The Economist reports. "And for the first time since the start of the war, polling also suggests a majority feel that the country is heading in the wrong direction."

Outside Ukraine, other recent surveys show lower hopes. Only 12 percent of Americans foresee a military victory for Ukraine, and just 10 percent of Europeans say the same.

That isn't because Moscow is expected to win. Slightly fewer Americans (11 percent) and slightly more Europeans (20 percent) think Russia can secure a military victory, but in both places the most predicted outcome is a negotiated settlement.

That's not a certain resolution—but it could be a tolerable and achievable one if Western and Ukrainian policymakers can grasp what Russia's Vladimir Putin has already lost, how Washington overreached, and why Kyiv would do well to seek a realistic peace.

Putin's losses

At this point, writes DEFP Director of Grand Strategy Rajan Menon at The New York Times, "it has become a commonplace that time favors President Vladimir Putin." But in a very real sense, "Putin's war has failed."

"[E]ven if this war ends with Russia retaining all the Ukrainian land it now holds … Ukraine will go its own way."
"If the fundamental purpose of Mr. Putin's war was to keep Ukraine within Russia's orbit—politically, culturally, and economically—it has had the opposite effect."
For Putin, this war has also backfired in the European Union and NATO Europe, prompting higher defense expenditures and new ties to Ukraine.
"Even a truncated Ukraine would be among Europe's biggest countries, its heft added to by a battle-tested army of 500,000." [NYT / Menon]

Washington's ambitions

Washington, meanwhile, has made too much of Ukraine, argues DEFP Fellow Daniel DePetris in a new brief:

The U.S. “remains Ukraine's most prolific backer as it defends itself against Russian aggression,” but our “security interests in the conflict are far narrower than” rhetoric in D.C. suggests.
In the third year of the war, the U.S. should have more limited ambitions, not anticipating that American support will lead to Ukraine reclaiming all its territory.
U.S. priorities are to “avoid escalation to direct U.S. or NATO conflict with a nuclear-armed Russia; shift the burden of aiding Ukraine and defending Europe to the Europeans; and refuse U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine.” [DEFP / DePetris]

What Kyiv should do next

As DePetris contends, the U.S. “should actively pursue exploratory peace or armistice talks between Ukraine and Russia, which have been neglected to date in favor of supporting Ukraine’s maximalist, unrealistic objectives.” [DEFP]
For Kyiv, the time to abandon those objectives has long since come. "The goal still today is not to enable Ukraine to take back all of its territory—I understand this is Ukraine official policy, but I don't think that [is] a theory of victory," as Carnegie's Michael Kofman said at a recent DEFP panel discussion. Rather, Ukraine is positioned to “negotiate with Russia war termination … and then to attain a durable peace." [Business Insider / Ella Sherman]
That might involve an armistice, Ukrainian neutrality, a compromise on territory, or something else livable if less-than-ideal.Trendlines

"Though public support for Ukraine in the West remains high, there are growing concerns in Kyiv about the depth of U.S. commitment," The Wall Street Journal reports. "A Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults found that the percentage of people saying Washington is providing too much support rose to 31 percent in December from 7 percent at the start of the war."

See more data on the war in Ukraine from the WSJ.

Quoted

"Absolutely I'm in favor of rethinking the U.S. role in NATO. I'm skeptical of permanent alliances, because that offers all sorts of trouble in the form of entanglements and getting involved in conflicts because of our relationships with countries rather than a sober look at U.S. security interests."

– DEFP founder and President Edward King, as quoted in, "Russia looms over yet another Trump presidential campaign." [WaPo / Ashley Parker]

Timelines

Two months of Houthi attacks

"The Houthis have said they are seeking to disrupt shipping links with Israel to force Israel to end its military campaign in Gaza," The New York Times reports. "But ships connected to more than a dozen countries have been targeted, and a Houthi spokesman said [earlier this year] that they consider 'all American and British ships' to be enemy targets."

Since this initial two-month stretch, Houthi attacks have continued on a similar, near-daily basis, as Military Times has chronicled. As U.S. and U.K. counterstrikes continue, the militant group has reportedly escalated its efforts to include knocking out undersea communication lines.

Livestream

Can Ukraine still win? Evaluating U.S. interests and policy options

Defense Priorities hosted a live discussion on Tuesday, February 20 on how U.S. policy should adjust to deal with Ukraine's changed fortunes. Panelists were Michael Kofman, Emma Ashford, Daniel Davis, and moderated by Benjamin Friedman.

WATCH HERE

Sober Analysis

What the Western media gets wrong about Taiwan

[FP / Clarissa Wei]

"You watch the news and see footage of war planes, and it seems like it's tense on the ground here in Taiwan," said Tina Liu, a Taiwanese journalist who took on her first fixing gig with an Italian outlet this year. "But it really isn't. And even though it isn't, people are still pursing that tense atmosphere." […]

This year, a lot of [a fixer named] Jesse's clients have been war correspondents—fresh out of Ukraine or Israel and looking for action. "Some were visibly disappointed when they realized life was normal," he said. By speaking up, the fixers hope for a more accurate and even-keeled portrayal of Taiwan.

"I know a lot of people come here because of our relationship with China," [Taiwanese journalist Tina] Liu added. "Everyone says Taiwan is the next Hong Kong, or the next Ukraine. But our history is different from these places."

Read the full analysis here.

Putin's losses, Washington's ambitions