The hub of realism and restraint

Asia

A second island chain strategy

Reducing American military requirements and the risk of a war with China while protecting U.S. interests

This strategy shifts U.S. military commitments and presence from the vulnerable “first island chain” toward a more defensible “second island chain.”

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US‑Israel‑Iran

War with Iran

Strategic failure despite operational successes

Even with myriad tactical military successes, the joint U.S.-Israel war—which aimed to permanently degrade Iran’s military capabilities and topple the regime—resulted in strategic failure.

NATO

Make Europe defend itself

The case for a U.S. military drawdown

A smaller footprint is vital to relieve U.S. overextension, and it will allow Europe to plan for a future in which Washington is no longer in the lead.

READ AT FOREIGN AFFAIRS

US‑Israel‑Iran

A security dilemma made worse

How war with Iran backfired

Washington’s tendency to confuse Iranian intent and exaggerate its capabilities paved the path for President Trump to wage a war that reflects these errors—and failed to achieve its objectives.

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Expert research and analysis

Connect with subject matter experts and military analysts

DEFP experts provide realistic, credible analysis of breaking news, unfolding events, and complex policy issues. Our analysts help simplify complex issues and provide accessible, concrete policy recommendations.

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In the mediaChina‑Taiwan, Asia, Basing and force posture, China, Military analysis

Trump has killed ‘strategic ambiguity’ over Taiwan

Featuring Jennifer Kavanagh

September 14, 2026

Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow there, wrote earlier this year that the United States should “replace strategic ambiguity with an […]

In the mediaChina‑Taiwan, Asia, Basing and force posture, China, Military analysis

Trump’s relations with China

Featuring Jennifer Kavanagh

September 13, 2026

ExplainerAsia, Basing and force posture, Global posture, Military analysis

A second island chain strategy for Asia

By Jennifer Kavanagh

September 10, 2026

The hub of realism and restraint

Our mission is to inform citizens, thought leaders, and policymakers of the importance of a strong, dynamic military—used more judiciously to protect America’s narrowly defined national interests—and promote a realistic grand strategy prioritizing restraint, diplomacy, and free trade to ensure U.S. security.