2023 shifted the war in Ukraine in Russia's favor. Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed to retake much of its territory, costing it vital manpower, confidence, and support. The firing of Ukraine's top general, Valery Zaluzhny, may herald further domestic fracture. Western support has ebbed, with President Biden’s proposed additional $61 billion stalled in Congress.

While neither Ukraine nor Russia appears able to deliver a decisive blow for now, Russia's material advantages are beginning to show, and its economy seems to have adapted to wartime conditions. How should U.S. policy deal with Ukraine's changed fortunes? Is a strategy that requires U.S. support for Ukraine, "for as long as it takes," to retake all of its lost territory, including Crimea, viable? Is a shift to a largely defensive, attrition strategy—rather than one focused on territory—more prudent? With more at stake than the U.S., what can European allies do to support Ukraine now and over the long term? What kind of security assistance would best help Ukraine while keeping the risk of direct U.S.-Russia conflict low? Should the U.S. do more diplomatically to induce Ukraine and Russia to negotiate peace or at least an armistice?