Fiscal woes make foreign policy realism and restraint more urgent; the Middle East doesn't matter much strategically.
STRATEGIC REALIGNMENT
Resource constraints make the strong case for restraint more urgent
Due in large part to the COVID-19 pandemic and Washington's response to it, this year the U.S. will register its largest budget deficit as a share of the economy in 75 years. [AP / Paul Weisman]
Federal debt held by the public is also the highest it has been since the end of WWII, and next year it is expected to surpass 100 percent of GDP, according to a new CBO report. [WSJ / Kate Davidson]
The pandemic has caused a global depression, says the chief economist at the World Bank. In the U.S., it will likely take years for per capita GDP and tax revenue to return to pre-crisis levels. [Foreign Affairs / Carmen Reinhart and Vincent Reinhart]
The U.S. economy is the foundation of national power, and its weakness has vast implications for foreign policy. But in crisis there is also opportunity: Fiscal constraints make the case for implementing a realist approach to U.S. national security—which was already strong—more urgent. [DEFP / Benjamin H. Friedman]
Austerity measures are likely to discipline future defense budgets, which account for about half of U.S. discretionary spending. Because current, overly ambitious defense policies bloat U.S. military spending, such cuts can be a useful source of reform. [DEFP]
There are strong strategic reasons to end U.S. military deployments in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan; fiscal realities, and the need to make better use of limited defense resources, are another. [Townhall / Willis Krumholz]
Another step toward fiscal prudence is to shift security responsibilities to allies in Europe and Asia. By doing less for allied security, the U.S. can save on deployments abroad while motivating allies to build more capable militaries. [DEFP]
19 YEARS AFTER 9/11
The last 9/11 anniversary with U.S. troops in Afghanistan
The U.S. should end its nearly two-decade war in Afghanistan, with plans for a complete U.S. military exit by April 2021. Read more from DEFP on why withdrawal is the best policy—no matter the outcome of intra-Afghan talks—and how the U.S. is stronger and safer without permanent ground troops there.
DEFENSE PRIORITIES
"The Middle East just doesn't matter as much any longer" [Politico Magazine / Aaron David Miller and Richard Sokolsky]
Whoever wins the U.S. presidential election will confront significant challenges at home and abroad. No administration, however, would be wise to treat the Middle East as a top national security priority. In fact, the region is far less important to the U.S. than it has been believed to be.
As realists have long argued, and as seasoned foreign policy hands are now acknowledging, U.S. vital security interests in the Middle East are limited and diminishing.
The U.S. has drastically reduced its dependence on the Persian Gulf for oil over the last two decades. And Middle Eastern crises do not have the impact on global oil prices that is often assumed—the eagerness of countries to get their petroleum products to market limit their disruptiveness.
The Middle East's intractable internal conflicts are also immune to U.S.-imposed solutions, as the trillions spent and tens of thousands of casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan over the last 20 years attest. At the same time, no Middle East power, including Iran, is poised to become a regional hegemon.
U.S. officials should distinguish between interests that are truly vital to U.S. security and the peripheral sort that lay in the Middle East. Reducing U.S. investments there will spare Americans and limit unnecessary risks and costs; it will preserve resources for higher priorities.
The U.S. should withdraw all combat troops from the region, adopt an offshore basing strategy, and extricate itself from conflicts not tied directly tied to U.S. security.
COLD WAR MINDSET
The U.S. troop presence in South Korea is a relic [PBS / Great Decisions, featuring David Kang and Daniel L. Davis]
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