Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has been trying to reduce its reliance on Russian oil and gas imports, forcing the continent to turn elsewhere to compensate. Imports of pricey liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, for instance, have grown from 19 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2019 to 56 bcm in 2023.
However, after two years of war, Russian natural gas is still flowing into the EU. While the volume of Russia’s gas exports to Europe has dropped significantly, from 180 bcm in 2019 to just 28.3 bcm in 2023, July’s volumes actually saw an increase year-over-year. Roughly half of the Russian gas that entered Europe in 2023 did so via pipelines that cross Ukraine.
This is set to change at the end of this year, when Ukraine’s most recent five-year transit agreement with Russia, brokered by the EU in 2019, expires. Given that there are currently no negotiations to renew it, the expected result come December will be the termination of Russian gas transiting Ukraine.
It may be tempting to treat total European independence from Russian gas, and by extension the severance of Ukraine’s pipeline links with Russia, as a foregone conclusion given the current state of war. However, Russian, Ukrainian, and western policymakers should seriously consider the short- and long-term consequences of this development.
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