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December 26, 2025
Trump’s security promise to Ukraine may be more dangerous than it looks
As the Trump administration pushes ahead with intensive negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war, it has surprised even its harshest critics by reportedly putting on the table a set of security guarantees for Ukraine that are more far-reaching than anything proposed by prior administrations.
On Wednesday, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Washington has offered to “provide Ukraine with ‘Article 5-like’ guarantees” as part of a deal to end the war. “If Russia invades Ukraine, a coordinated military response will be launched,” he said. Though some of the details remain vague, the invocation of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, NATO’s founding document, suggests that the United States would treat a future Russian attack on Ukraine as an attack on itself and respond accordingly, including possibly with the direct deployment of U.S. military forces. According to the terms under discussion, this guarantee would be ratified by the Senate and made legally binding.
But those celebrating this turn of events should hold off on the champagne toasts. There’s a problem with the emerging plan: It promises too much.
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