Biden's fourth commitment to defending Taiwan, Putin's reported rejection of a Ukraine deal, new polls on U.S. priorities, and more.

LOOSE LIPS

Would U.S. troops fight China for Taiwan? Biden—yet again—says "yes"

In an interview with 60 Minutes which aired Sunday, President Joe Biden said for the fourth time since taking office last year that the U.S. military would defend Taiwan from an attack by Beijing.

The commitment from Biden

CBS host Scott Pelley: What should Chinese President Xi [Jinping] know about your commitment to Taiwan?

President Joe Biden: We agree with what we signed onto a long time ago: that there's One-China policy, and Taiwan makes their own judgments about their independence. We are not moving—we're not encouraging their being independent. We're not—that's their decision.

Pelley: But would U.S. forces defend the island?

Biden: Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack.

[interview cuts for narrator commentary]

Pelley: So, unlike Ukraine, to be clear, sir, U.S. forces—U.S. men and women—would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion?

Biden: Yes. [CBS]

The White House walk-back and Beijing's response

The White House promptly walked back Biden's comments, denying they represented a departure from the long-standing U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan.
"The president has said this before, including in Tokyo earlier this year. He also made clear then that our Taiwan policy hasn't changed. That remains true," said a U.S. official. [The Guardian / Vincent Ni]
Biden's "remarks seriously violate the One-China principle and the provisions of the three U.S.-China joint communiqués," said a statement from Beijing. [CNN / Kevin Liptak and Brad Lendon]

The familiar—and dangerous—pattern

This is the fourth time Biden has made similar remarks about Taiwan:
- In May, when asked if he was "willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that," Biden answered, "Yes." [WaPo / Aaron Blake]
- In October of 2021, when asked if he would "vow to protect Taiwan" and "come to Taiwan's defense if China attacked," Biden twice answered, "Yes." [White House]
- In August of 2021, he said that the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan is the "same" as its commitment to "our NATO allies." [Reuters / David Brunnstrom]
In each case, the White House subsequently denied a move away from strategic ambiguity. Beijing is clearly unconvinced.
In asserting independence is "[Taiwan's] decision," Biden went beyond his three prior comments as well the Shanghai Communiqué's statement that the U.S. "does not challenge" Beijing's One-China position.
"We're trying to avoid World War III," Biden reportedly reminds his staff regarding Ukraine, warning against escalation like U.S. boots on the ground. Where is that realism on Taiwan? [NYT / David E. Sanger et al.]

► Go deeper with a DEFP explainer: Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan ◄

CHARTED

Taiwanese defense spending as a share of GDP

Taiwan’s defense spending **has fallen as a share of its GDP** since the late 1980s. It has the capacity to increase spending—beyond the **boost planned for 2023**—to enhance its own ability to deter China.

SOBER ANALYSIS

You can’t prevent a war after it starts [Nonzero / Robert Wright]

Reuters reported that sometime around his Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected "a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO."
The exact timeline isn't clear from Reuters' story, but the most probable scenario is that the offer arrived shortly after the invasion began.
Particularly with that timeline, this is not—as some have argued—"proof" that the prospect of Ukrainian accession to NATO was irrelevant for Putin.
Moreover, "once you've actually launched a massive invasion, there are all kinds of reasons you might not want to put it on pause to nail down a deal you would have accepted before the invasion."
"The question of Putin's motivation for invading Ukraine is"—still—"a complex and unresolved one" in which NATO expansion, both past and anticipated, certainly played a part.

SURVEYS SAY

Polls show Americans are wary of military engagement abroad, including in Ukraine [Morning Consult & Concerned Veterans for America]

Americans are wary of direct U.S. military involvement in the war in Ukraine and do not see militarily defending democracy abroad as a key U.S. interest, per two new surveys from Morning Consult and Concerned Veterans for America:

Only 2% say defeating Russia in Ukraine should be the Biden administration's top priority (CV4A)
Terrorism (61%), cyberattacks (49%), and immigration and climate change (tied at 44%) top Americans' list of foreign policy concerns (MC)
The war in Ukraine comes in 11th place (25%), and "upholding democracy globally" ranks last (17%) (MC)
Most Americans want U.S. military and financial aid to Ukraine to be matched (51%) or exceeded (34%) by aid sent by wealthy European countries (CV4A)
Six in 10 Americans oppose U.S. military intervention in Ukraine (CV4A)
Four in 10 want to reduce U.S. military involvement globally; only 7% want to expand it (CV4A)
Five in 10 Americans want to reduce U.S. "involvement in the affairs of other countries;" only 13% want to increase it (MC)

Biden's fourth "yes"