Unanswered questions about the war in Ukraine, plus the problem with a 'moral competition' framing, international polling on Ukraine, and more.

Ukraine triumphs in Kharkiv, and Washington must tread carefully

Ukraine's stunning counteroffensive

In a counterattack in the Kharkiv province over the past week, Ukrainian troops routed Russian forces, reportedly retaking territory all the way up to the Russian border. [The Guardian / Dan Sabbagh]
"In a few days the Ukrainians liberated about as much territory as Russia had captured in a few months ... Ukraine appears to have changed the whole complexion of the war." [The Atlantic / Phillips Payson O’Brien]

Ukraine's advance led to speculation that Kyiv could reclaim Donbas and Crimea and contribute to the ouster of Russia's President Putin.
"It's time to prepare for a Ukrainian victory," argued Anne Applebaum. And "a victory in Ukraine's understanding of the term," she warned, "also brings about the end of Putin's regime." [The Atlantic]
"Ukrainians are fighting ... for the second liberation of Eastern Europe, finishing the process that began in 1989," added Brian Whitmore, anticipating a much-weakened Moscow. [Foreign Policy]

This could be a true turning point in the war, and President Putin is facing new dissent for what increasingly appears to be a floundering, ill-guided invasion. [NYT / Anton Troianovski]
But we've also "had multiple occasions over the last seven months ... where tactical successes haven't translated into a shorter war," observed DEFP's Daniel DePetris. [Twitter]
Whatever comes next, Washington should tread carefully here. A destabilized Moscow would be dangerous, and Kyiv acknowledges "'limited' nuclear war" remains possible. [WaPo / Miriam Berger]
The U.S. is Kyiv's primary military aid provider (see chart below), and officials in Washington are increasingly open about U.S. training for Ukrainian troops. [Defense One / Marcus Weisgerber]
Troublingly, U.S. leaders haven't "said how our support for Kyiv is expected to achieve the outcomes sought," noted DEFP's Daniel Davis. "No one has articulated what a 'weakened' Russia looks like or how we'll know when that standard has been reached." [1945]
Those are questions for which the American public deserves answers, turning point or not.

"Polling conducted in 22 countries across the globe shows a wide divergence in popular support for Ukraine."
Respondents in the global South were more likely than people in Western nations to say Russia is "justified in wanting to have greater influence over its neighbor Ukraine."
"Perhaps most striking, only 22% of respondents in the United States listed Ukraine as a Top 3 global issue, despite enormous American financial and military aid for Kyiv."
Majorities in all 22 countries want "a peace deal so the world can focus on other issues and needs."