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Home / Ukraine-Russia / New missiles won’t change Ukraine’s broken war math
Ukraine‑Russia, Europe and Eurasia, Military analysis, Russia, Ukraine

November 21, 2024

New missiles won’t change Ukraine’s broken war math

By Jennifer Kavanagh

When U.S. President Joe Biden greenlit Ukraine’s use of longer-range, U.S.-provided missiles known as ATACMS to strike targets deep inside Russia this week, he crossed what Russia has deemed a red line. The decision came after months of pressure from Kyiv, European allies, and Ukraine-supporting members of the U.S. Congress who blamed Biden’s foot-dragging for Ukraine’s cascading losses.

Biden’s gambit will fail for the same reason his broader Ukraine policy has: It ignores the conflict’s basic math. Given limits on U.S. stockpiles and defense production and Ukraine’s manpower constraints—all readily apparent from the war’s outset—there has never been a sustainable way for Washington to fuel its partner to total victory over Russia.

Read at Foreign Policy

Author

Jennifer
Kavanagh

Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis

Defense Priorities

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