The value of staying the course on Taiwan, the geographic reality of a U.S. promise to Kyiv, a new U.S. approach to West Africa, and more.

Strategic Continuity

How and why Washington should preserve the status quo around Taiwan

Late summer is the season for fresh escalation in U.S.-China-Taiwan tensions over the independent, democratic island—if the pattern of the past year is any indication, at least.

In 2022, August saw visits to Taipei by a series of U.S. officials, most notably then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei. Her trip was discouraged by the Biden administration and roundly condemned by Beijing, which responded by increasing its military demonstrations in and around the Taiwan Strait.

In 2023, July concluded with Taiwan's first-ever "anti-takeover drill" at its international airport. August began with Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-Te's plans to visit the U.S. twice on his way to and from Paraguay—also much-protested by Beijing, of course. And throughout the latter half of summer, Chinese military drills literally pushed the boundaries of Taiwanese defense, with PLA planes coming "to the very edge of Taiwanese airspace, 12 miles off the coast."

The temptation in Washington will be to do something, to take some kind of bold, new action to upset this pattern. But the more prudent course, argues DEFP Senior Fellow Ret. Col. Daniel L. Davis at Chicago Tribune, is the opposite: We need to preserve the status quo.

The end

For half a century, Davis notes, the status quo "has preserved the peace, safeguarded Taiwan's freedom and ability to flourish as a sovereign polity, and prevented periodic crises from exploding into open warfare."

The status quo isn't ideal, but it's workable for U.S. and Taiwanese security alike. We know we can live with it because we've already lived with it for decades.
Washington should ensure the status quo "continues into the indefinite future." [Chicago Tribune / Davis]

The Means

Talk to Beijing. At present, "communication between the U.S. and Chinese militaries is virtually nonexistent at the highest levels." This is petty and reckless behavior.

Defend, deter, and compete. "It is important that Washington do all it can to protect our economic interests from Chinese espionage and our national security from any Chinese attacks. Robust competition with China is appropriate and necessary."
Avoid open conflict. "A war in the Taiwan Straits would be the worst possible outcome for the United States, Taiwan, China, and the global economy. It must, therefore, be avoided at all costs." [Chicago Tribune / Davis]

Quoted

"I've been regularly documenting all kinds of nuclear threats that have traded back and forth, and I personally think that we've kind of underplayed those for political reasons."

— Lyle Goldstein, DEFP director of Asia engag

Mapped

Ukraine’s land border with Russia

"Promising to fight for Ukraine would not enhance U.S. security,” DEFP Policy Director Benjamin H. Friedman argued in a recent explainer, and that’s partly due to the sheer geographic reality such a promise would involve.

Even if we avoided open conflict with Russia, which could escalate to nuclear war, the U.S. "would be promising to secure a 1,200-mile land border with Russia," Friedman observes:

That would be expensive and require substantial manpower to be stationed in Ukraine, if taken seriously. After all, for all its defensive success, Ukraine could not stop Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 or broad advances in 2022. This manpower, like other U.S. capabilities dedicated to Ukraine, would not be available for other contingencies more important to U.S. security.

Sober Analysis

Time to change U.S. policy toward Niger and its West African neighbors

[Defense One / C. William Walldorf Jr.]

The coup in Niger [in July] should be a wake-up call for U.S. policymakers: The current approach to security in West Africa isn't working. The United States is using too much force against too little threat in the region. Leaders must resist the temptation to escalate in the current crisis. Instead, they should draw down forces from Niger, limit missions to reconnaissance, and focus on peacemaking in conflict zones.

Read the full analysis here.

Stick to the status quo