FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
November 15, 2022
Contact: press@defensepriorities.org
WASHINGTON, DC—Today, Russian missiles reportedly crossed into Poland and killed two people in the country, which is a member of NATO. Defense Priorities Director of Grand Strategy Rajan Menon issued the following statement in response:
“An apparently stray Russian missile hit Poland today, killing two people. Given the ferocity with which Russia has been raining down missiles across Ukraine in recent weeks, this incident, while hardly inevitable, is scarcely surprising considering that Poland adjoins Ukraine. Lviv, the major city in western Ukraine, is about 40 miles from the Polish border.
“Does this mean war between NATO and the Russian Federation is around the corner or inevitable? No. The mutual defense clause in the 1949 Washington Treaty that established NATO is Article V. It’s often understood to be ‘an attack on one equals an attack on all’ automatic trigger. That interpretation is mistaken.
“Article V gives each member state of NATO leeway to exercise its judgment and to ‘take such actions it deems necessary, including the use of armed force.’ The Article does not put them on autopilot or rob them of agency. This does not mean that the Russian missile strike in Poland isn’t a serious incident. It is and brings home in a visceral manner how a prolonged war in Ukraine could lead to an incident which, while it may have been unintended, could nevertheless set a conflict spiral in motion.
“This episode also shows why, however bad the relationship between Russia and the U.S. may now be—and it’s a post-Cold War low-point—it’s essential for Moscow and Washington to maintain close communication in order to prevent individual incidents from generating crises that then segue into war. No one needs to intend that outcome; it could happen anyway. That’s the dangerous thing about war: the control that states have over where it heads is often imperfect.”
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