On a visit to Shanghai some years ago, I asked a leading Chinese strategist how Beijing would view a war between the U.S. and Iran, which even back then seemed a high probability. I thought he would opine on how higher oil prices could threaten Chinese manufacturing.
Instead, he shocked me by explaining that China would benefit from the U.S. fighting yet another costly war in the Middle East, since that could mark the “end of U.S. global hegemony.” The Chinese have indeed always considered the Middle East as “the graveyard of empires.”
While hostilities have subsided for now, there remains a grim possibility that the Israel-Iran ceasefire could break down and the US will once again face pressure to come to Israel’s defense. If China were to aid Iran, as it has Pakistan, with aircraft, missiles, and battle management technologies, that would mark a troubling escalation.
But now, Beijing remains cautious about wielding its military power abroad. Still, China will likely reap geopolitical benefits if the U.S. continues to be on an adversarial footing with Iran.
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