Presidential elections rarely turn on foreign-policy issues, and 2024 is likely to be no exception. But while the US role abroad may not be on the minds of most voters, nations around the globe have their eyes trained on November, anxiously gauging how the election outcome might affect their future. Nowhere is there more uncertainty than in Taiwan.
The Democratic Party’s 2024 platform suggests a degree of continuity with the past, promising—as in 2020—a commitment to the Strait status quo across the Taiwan Strait. But there is significant disagreement among conservatives about how to approach Taiwan. In a July 2024 interview, Donald Trump seemed to question the wisdom of committing to a military defense of the island, citing the difficulty of defending it and puzzling over the US interests at stake. “I think Taiwan should pay us for defense,” Trump said. “You know, we’re no different than an insurance company.”
Others in the GOP have criticized this view as dangerous isolationism. Former Vice President Mike Pence and Heritage Foundation founder Ed Feulner, for example, spoke for many conservatives when they argued in The Washington Post that “the United States must stand firm in its support for Taiwan … because it is in our national interest to do so.” Another faction, led by Elbridge Colby, whose name has been floated for a high-level national-security position in a second Trump administration, has also pressed for a defense of Taiwan but acknowledges that US interests in the island’s fate are less than existential.
But Trump is right. Washington policymakers across the partisan spectrum ought to be much more circumspect about making explicit or even halting commitments to Taiwan, regardless of the political pressure. An American attempt to protect Taiwan from a Chinese invasion would be immensely expensive—militarily and economically—but the US stakes and chances for success are rather limited. Worse, defending Taiwan might harm, more than help, America’s national security and vital interests. Under these circumstances, a reluctance to commit to defend Taiwan isn’t isolationist but simply prudent.
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