In 1863, Confederate General Robert E. Lee had a daring idea: move into western Pennsylvania, weaken northern morale, and potentially even strike Washington, D.C. But the attack stalled, ultimately being repulsed at the Battle of Gettysburg, which became known as the “high-water mark” of the Confederacy.
The Russo-Ukrainian War was far different from the American Civil War, and Ukraine was, of course, not anything morally resembling the Confederate States of America. Unfortunately for Ukraine, their recent incursion north into Kursk bears striking resemblances to Lee’s ill-fated attempt.
Before the incursion, the war was simply not going well for Ukraine, whilst they had significant early successes in the conflict, most notably the Battle for Kyiv and the late 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive, 2023 saw the war become something of a stalemate. But 2024 has borne witness to Russia slowly, but surely, making gains. Those gains have been small, and Russian success is measured by kilometers at a time—but it is objectively success. As a result, even strong allies across the West, including prominent staunchly pro-Ukraine Democrats, were starting to loudly murmur about the need for peace and were expressing frustration with the lack of any sign of negotiations.
The Kursk attack has silenced those murmurs; Ukraine seems to be on the upswing, and no ally will speak up against it now. Ukraine reportedly wants to use the land it has seized as a bargaining chip to get back its land, and analysts are arguing Vladimir Putin’s days may be numbered. Putin has been relatively silent about the attack—surely something must be afoot in the Kremlin, or so goes the argument.
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