Depending on who you believe, the war in Ukraine is either a few weeks from resolution or as far away from a negotiated settlement as it has ever been. Russian President Vladimir Putin is either sincere in his desire to end the conflict or a duplicitous goon who is using the perception of a negotiation process to gum up the works in order to bide time for more territorial gains.
The truth is somewhere in the middle. On paper at least, the Trump administration’s weeks-long shuttle diplomacy between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has produced a few short-term arrangements. On March 11, pressured by the suspension in US military aid, Zelensky agreed to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, the very same proposal he had waved away only weeks prior. This week, after three days of consultations in Riyadh, US officials walked away with a commitment to extend that ceasefire to the Black Sea. These series of truces are meant to freeze the front lines, end the killing and create space to tackle the deep, systemic issues that have powered this war for more than three years.
The bad news: none of the deals has been implemented. The 30-day ceasefire, which was watered down to a pause on attacks against energy and infrastructure targets, was violated before the ink was even dry. Russian bombs, artillery and drones continue to hammer Ukrainian power sources, while the Ukrainians have responded with their own attacks on Russian oil depots and gas transit sites. All of this is happening as the front line in the east remains as deadly and chaotic as ever.
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