Defense Priorities Defense Priorities
  • Policy Topics
    • Ukraine-Russia
    • NATO
    • China
    • Syria
    • Israel-Iran
  • Research
    • Briefs
    • Explainers
    • Reports
  • Programs
    • Grand Strategy Program
    • Military Analysis Program
    • Asia Program
    • Middle East Program
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Media
  • About
    • Mission & Vision
    • People
    • Jobs
    • Contact
  • Donate
Select Page
Home / Ukraine-Russia / Territory won’t determine the winner of the Ukraine war
Ukraine‑Russia, Europe and Eurasia, Russia, Ukraine

March 10, 2024

Territory won’t determine the winner of the Ukraine war

By Erik Gartzke

News of the Russian capture of Avdiivka and a subsequent Russian advance in Ukraine has increased concerns about Ukraine’s prospects in its war with Russia.

It is tempting to rely on movement along the battle lines as an indicator of relative success. Yet, victory is unlikely to be decided by the ebb and flow of territory. The real test is what the side that is capturing a town pays in lives and treasure. Just because someone “bought” something, that does not mean they made a wise purchase. Russia may even be experiencing buyer’s regret.

Read at Washington Examiner

Author

Photo of Erik Gartzke

Erik
Gartzke

Non-Resident Fellow

Defense Priorities

More on Eurasia

op-edNATO, Europe and Eurasia, Russia

Poland’s drone scare is not grounds for Nato escalation

By Jennifer Kavanagh

September 12, 2025

op-edEurope and Eurasia, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, Ukraine‑Russia

EU elites are finally waking up to the collapse of the world as they knew it

By Daniel DePetris

September 10, 2025

op-edUkraine‑Russia, Europe and Eurasia, Russia, Ukraine

For Putin, bargaining and bombing aren’t mutually exclusive

By Jennifer Kavanagh

September 9, 2025

In the mediaUkraine‑Russia, Europe and Eurasia

Daniel Davis assesses the potential for Russia-Ukraine peace on NewsNation

Featuring Daniel Davis

September 8, 2025

op-edAlliances, NATO, Ukraine‑Russia

Who will wield all those shiny new weapons?

By Gil Barndollar

September 3, 2025

op-edUkraine‑Russia, Europe and Eurasia, Russia, Ukraine

Is the West fooling itself on Ukraine security guarantees?

By Daniel DePetris

September 3, 2025

Events on Ukraine-Russia

See All Events
virtualUkraine‑Russia, Air power, Diplomacy, Drones, Europe and Eurasia, Land power, Military analysis, Russia, Ukraine

Past Virtual Event: Ukraine’s critical choice: Pursue peace or fight on

April 16, 2025
virtualUkraine‑Russia, Europe and Eurasia, Russia, Ukraine

Past Virtual Event: Trump and Ukraine: Prolonging or ending the war

December 13, 2024
virtualNATO, Alliances, Europe and Eurasia, Russia, Ukraine, Ukraine‑Russia

Past Virtual Event: A ‘bridge’ to NATO or false hope for Ukraine?

July 12, 2024

Receive expert foreign policy analysis

Join the hub of realism and restraint

Expert updates and analysis to enhance your understanding of vital U.S. national security issues

Defense Priority Mono Logo

Our mission is to inform citizens, thought leaders, and policymakers of the importance of a strong, dynamic military—used more judiciously to protect America’s narrowly defined national interests—and promote a realistic grand strategy prioritizing restraint, diplomacy, and free trade to ensure U.S. security.

  • About
  • For Media
  • Jobs
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Contact
© 2025 Defense Priorities All Right Reserved