Yesterday, after months of threats, the Trump administration imposed new sanctions on Russia over its ongoing war in Ukraine, targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, the country’s two largest oil companies. Announcing the measures, the White House renewed its call for an immediate ceasefire. “Now is the time to stop the killing,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
Russia hawks and Ukraine supporters in the U.S. and Europe hailed the move as a breakthrough, a sign that Washington was finally ready to impose real costs on Moscow and that President Donald Trump was getting tough on Vladimir Putin. Neither claim holds up. The sanctions will likely have only a modest impact on Russia’s economy, and are unlikely to alter the course of the war or bring it to an end. Still, the new measures are significant for two reasons. They reveal how deeply Trump and Putin continue to misunderstand each other—and how difficult it will be to stop the fighting.
As with any sanctions package, the costs of the latest round of economic penalties imposed will depend on enforcement. Here, signs point in Moscow’s favour. For starters, it is not clear how many of Russia’s remaining buyers will adjust their behaviour in response to additional U.S. sanctions. There are reports that India and China plan to back off their (known) purchases of Russian oil, but this may be temporary or partial.
In any case, Russia has long been preparing for this kind of pressure and has grown adept at evading sanctions, including those targeting its oil sector. That’s unlikely to change. Despite the new U.S. measures, Moscow’s customers will keep buying its oil—through the black market or other workarounds.
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