NATO’s 75th anniversary might seem to some like a good opportunity for the alliance to double down on its core mission: deterring and, if necessary, defending member states from Russian aggression. But increasing defense capabilities alone isn’t enough to reduce the risk of conflict with Russia. NATO, and especially the United States, should consider negotiations with Russia to reduce the dangerous nuclear risks that have been exacerbated by the Ukraine conflict.
This task is particularly salient with the recent addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO—two countries in Russia’s vicinity that abandoned neutrality for the U.S. security umbrella, which now runs from the High North to the Black Sea. Moscow will have to rely even more on its nuclear arsenal to compensate for conventional military inferiority relative to NATO. Nuclear weapons will feature prominently in future crises as a coercive tool to convince adversaries to settle disputes on Moscow’s terms. Indeed, Russian nuclear threats have, so far, successfully deterred NATO from directly intervening in Ukraine. They have given Russia a competitive risk-taking advantage in a conflict where its interests are inherently greater than those of NATO and the U.S.
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