In his speech at the Munich Security Conference yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not waste time mourning the end of the so-called “rules-based order” which has governed international relations for decades. Instead, he celebrated it, branding that old order a foolish delusion and putting forward the Trump administration’s vision for what comes next: a future based on hard power, pursuit of national interests, and revitalised Western leadership.
European leaders should not be reassured by Rubio’s gentle tone or his repeated appeals to the deep historical and cultural ties linking the United States with their continent, however. His speech was intended not as a love letter, but as an ultimatum. According to Rubio, Europe faces a choice. It can either align itself with Washington’s agenda in building a “new Western Century”, or it can go it alone and find itself on the receiving end of continued U.S. pressure. Whether Washington can make good on its threats is unclear, but the reality facing Europe should not be.
Rubio deserves credit for his honest and clear-eyed diagnosis of the mistakes made at the end of the Cold War, and his unsentimental acknowledgement that the old way of doing things no longer works. His speech departed from the consensus in important and productive ways, for instance, by discarding the democratic liberalism that has long been the foundation of the transatlantic relationship. He was right to call out the failure of institutions to address contemporary economic challenges and to fault Europe for leaving itself geopolitically vulnerable by outsourcing its security.
But the new world order Rubio called for looks remarkably like the one he criticised in at least one respect: it has a dominant America at its centre, ready to coerce allies and adversaries alike.
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