President Donald Trump came into office promising to end wars, but last week, he instead started a new one, when he ordered what the White House is calling a “proactive defensive” operation in response to Iran’s “imminent threat.”
The onset of yet another U.S.-initiated conflict in the Middle East deals a double blow to Trump’s ambitions as a peacemaker. It has obviously derailed, perhaps permanently, the on-and-off talks between Tehran and Washington over the future of Iran’s nuclear program. But it is also likely to interfere with another Trump priority: ending the four-year-long war between Russia and Ukraine.
The conflict in Iran probably won’t alter the long-term trajectory of Russia’s special military operation. It will, however, prolong the fighting and make it harder to reach a ceasefire. Not only does the Iran war fallout weaken U.S. leverage over both combatants, but its economic and military consequences will give both Kyiv and Moscow incentives to slow-walk diplomatic efforts. A breakthrough is still possible, but these setbacks mean peace in Ukraine is likely a long way off.
Read at Responsible Statecraft
Author
More on Eurasia
Events on Ukraine-Russia
