Since returning to the White House 14 months ago, Donald Trump has made ending the war in Ukraine a priority. His ability to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into accepting a deal has always been limited. But Trump has benefitted throughout from the power to make continued fighting increasingly costly for Russia, including through punitive economic sanctions, military aid to Ukraine, and geopolitical moves aimed at diluting Moscow’s regional influence.
After dragging the United States into a costly and unnecessary conflict with Iran, however, Trump has sacrificed any leverage he had over his Russian counterpart—military, political, or economic. The Kremlin has expressed renewed distrust of the White House in the wake of the strikes; and when the two leaders spoke over the phone on Monday, Putin for the first time had the clear upper hand. When negotiations aimed at achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine resume, Russia will have the decisive advantage.
Trump’s most effective cudgel against Russia’s war effort has long been an economic one. Though his administration initially resisted calls to step up sanctions on Russia, in late October, he changed course, placing new, far-reaching restrictions on Russia’s largest oil companies. Washington also urged partners, including India, to reduce their purchases of Russian oil and increase interceptions of Russia’s shadow fleet across the globe.
Though economic pressure is unlikely on its own to convince Putin to stop the war, U.S. sanctions did manage to shrink Russian oil revenues. They also prompted discussion in the Kremlin about making structural changes to the economy in order to sustain necessary war funding.
Author
