Last year, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced his intention to turn the country’s armed forces into “Europe’s strongest conventional army.” Since he came into office, Merz’s government has been outspoken about the need to reduce Europe’s dependence on an increasingly unreliable United States and prepare the continent to face the Russian threat without Washington’s aid. Against this backdrop, the publication in April of Germany’s new military strategy document, which laid out ambitious targets for rapidly expanding German defense capabilities, has been widely heralded as yet another sign that Berlin is determined to carry much of the burden of continental defense.
A look beyond this rhetoric, however, reveals a country still far off from turning its proclaimed vision of becoming a serious military power into reality. For months, both German officials and the general public have engaged in an intense debate about one of the key components in Berlin’s rearmament efforts: increasing the size of the Bundeswehr, as the German military is known. So far, the government has bet on a voluntary military service model, but that has failed to hit its recruitment targets.
It will therefore soon be forced to choose between two unattractive alternatives: implementing mandatory military service, or effectively giving up on its current recruitment targets. Which path Germany will choose is far from obvious—and will reveal more about Berlin’s view of the world than any speech or strategy document.
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