The Other Risk of U.S. War With Russia

By Bonnie Kristian

Public attention to U.S.-Russia relations since February has focused on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and understandably so. The United States' gradually expanding support for Ukraine's defense has enabled the Eastern European nation to repel Russian aggression far better and longer than most anticipated when the war began, but it has also brought the U.S. and Russia worryingly close to conflict. That's a prospect which has even hawks flying scared, because Washington and Moscow's nuclear arsenals, if deployed, are enough to destroy the world many times over.

But there's another risk of U.S.-Russia conflict to which we should pay attention: Both countries continue to have a military presence in Syria. Russian forces are primarily supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country's brutal civil war, as well as fighting remnants of the Islamic State. American troops are training enemies of ISIS, limiting the Assad regime's oil access, and conducting strikes against groups including ISIS and "targets linked to Al Qaeda, the Syrian government, and Iran-backed militias."

U.S. and Russian soldiers in Syria aren't in open conflict—in fact, the two militaries maintain a "deconfliction" line of communications—but they are operating in tight quarters, and often, on opposing sides. Close calls are too common, and particularly with rising hostility in Europe, a misstep or miscommunication could plunge us into unwanted and unnecessary war. That's a risk we could eliminate with a safer and more prudent policy for U.S. security: complete military withdrawal from Syria.

The danger of unintended conflict with Russia in Syria was well-illustrated by a pair of Russian operations in Syria this month. As a recent Wall Street Journal report detailed, "Russia carried out airstrikes at the al-Tanf garrison" where U.S. troops are stationed. Russia gave American forces advance notice of the strikes through that communications line, and there were no U.S. casualties. That same week, Russia deployed two Su-34 jet fighters to a site in northeast Syria where the U.S. was conducting a raid on an Islamic State bomb maker, only pulling back after the U.S. scrambled F-16 jets to warn the Russians.

This piece was originally published in Newsweek on July 1, 2022. Read more HERE.