By Barry Posen
As Moscow threatens Ukraine to convince the United States and its European partners to abandon their post-Cold War policy of institutional creep to Russia’s borders, the U.S. foreign policy establishment has unleashed the (rhetorical) dogs of war. The joke among the troops of General George “Blood and Guts” Patton was, “yeah, his guts; our blood.” And just like Patton, some experts seem willing to fight to the last Ukrainian rather than give up the liberal hegemony project in Europe and treat Russia like a normal great power. Most great powers have a rule that they live by: political scientist Steve Van Evera calls it the NUPIMBY rule—no unfriendly powers in my backyard. The United States enforces this rule in its hemisphere; Russia is trying to establish it along its borders. An agreement among the United States, the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine itself that Ukraine would opt for neutrality rather than NATO membership would satisfy this principle, but so far Ukraine and its friends have rejected that solution.
Because President Biden explicitly has abjured any intention to send U.S. forces to fight in Ukraine and virtually no one believes that the outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian military could today mount a successful defense of the country, two nostrums have been commended by U.S. experts. Both encourage the Ukrainians to fight the Russians, but have little likelihood of producing military success.
The first is the “panacea weapon” solution. Advocates recommend showering the Ukrainian military with person-portable, precision-guided, anti-tank (Javelin) and anti-aircraft (Stinger) weapons, though few say just how many of these expensive systems they would send. Given that Ukraine itself produces analogous weapons, it is surely the case that the Ukrainian army has trained some skilled operators, and could train more. The Javelin’s somewhat larger predecessor, the TOW, proved deadly in the hands of Syrian rebels versus Assad’s tanks. And early Stingers gave Afghan insurgents some leverage over Soviet attack helicopters. These are indeed excellent weapons.
This piece was originally published in Just Security on February 15, 2022. Read more HERE.