For months, the Trump administration has advanced a simple formula for ending the war in Ukraine: Kyiv must concede territory in exchange for American security guarantees. As JD Vance put it in August 2025, “the Ukrainians want security guarantees, and the Russians want… territory.” This trade-off remains at the centre of U.S. efforts to mediate a peace deal.
In recent rounds of talks with the Ukrainian delegation, Washington has reportedly continued to make future U.S. security commitments contingent on Kyiv’s withdrawal from Donetsk, believing that this could secure a peace deal. But this framework will ultimately fail, as it fundamentally misunderstands the role that territory plays in the current conflict. Instead, the Trump administration should focus on the war’s root cause, if any ceasefire is to be realistically achieved.
Though some in the administration, such as Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, have suggested it is the one issue holding up a peace deal, Russia has never seen this war as being primarily about territory. A withdrawal from Donetsk is instead a symbolic victory for Moscow that would signal Ukrainian capitulation and surrender. This would serve as a tacit admission that Russia has “won” the war, handing a political victory to President Vladimir Putin.
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