Pressing for Taiwan's independence carries significant risks; the rhetoric of foreign policy restraint is popular—time to translate words into action.
DETER AND AVOID CONFLICT
What not to do vis-à-vis Taiwan is as important as what to do
On Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday last week, Chinese planes flew into Taiwan's air defense identification zone, part of a deliberate provocation by Beijing in recent weeks involving dozens of flights by bombers and fighter jets across the Taiwan Strait. [AP]
This month, U.S. undersecretary Keith Krach became the highest-ranking State Department official to visit the island in decades, drawing a rebuke from China. [NYT / Amy Qin]
Taiwan plans to boost its defense budget by 10 percent and is increasingly looking to the U.S. for military equipment. This month, the White House announced a $7 billion arms package to Taipei in addition to the $15 billion already sold to the island over the last three years. [WSJ / Gordon Lubold and Nancy Youssef]
The reunification of Taiwan with the mainland has long been considered a vital interest in Beijing. The U.S. interest, however, is centered on avoiding a war in East Asia and maintaining trade. An official U.S. security guarantee to Taiwan, as some have proposed, by straining relations with China, could actually make both of those U.S. objectives more tenuous. [Foreign Affairs / Bonnie Glaser]
Nor is an official security guarantee politically expedient. U.S. interests should guide foreign policy, not Taiwan's. A majority of Americans do not support using U.S. troops to come to Taiwan's defense in the event of a Chinese invasion. [Chicago Council]
In a conflict over Taiwan, China would have an advantage of proximity, though its ability to land forces amphibiously is questionable. The U.S. Navy and Air Force would face significant losses in their attempt to safeguard the island. Beijing would almost certainly deploy its stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles at the onset, leaving U.S. forces vulnerable. [RS / Lyle Goldstein]
The U.S. should be prudent and dispassionate about Taiwan. It should not use the U.S. military on the front end of a conflict or provide the island with a promise of external defense. It should provide Taipei with the defensive weapons and technology (A2/AD systems) needed to increase the costs of a possible Chinese invasion. [TWQ / Eugene Gholz, Benjamin H. Friedman, and Enea Gjoza]
QUOTED
"As long as U.S. ground forces remain in Iraq and Syria with an open-ended counter-Iran mission, U.S. servicemembers will be tempting targets for Iranian retaliation." [Washington Post / Daniel R. DePetris]
REORIENT FOREIGN POLICY
Promoting peace is popular with Americans—will policy reflect that reality? [Vox / Alex Ward]
"For the first time in years, the foreign policy fight in the 2020 [U.S.] presidential election isn't about which candidate would best win wars, but rather which would most quickly end them," Alex Ward writes for Vox.
The U.S. is "ending the era of endless wars," President Trump said in June. The U.S. should "end the forever wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East," former Vice President Joe Biden said in July. Both are using rhetoric that promises to correct the foreign policy mistakes of the past by focusing on higher priorities at home—a message that resonates with Americans.
A plurality of Americans want to reduce U.S. security commitments in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, according to a new survey by the Eurasia Group Foundation. Nearly 60 percent of Americans believe the U.S. should negotiate directly with adversaries in order to avoid military confrontation.
After two decades of military overextension, more than $6 trillion in taxpayer money spent or obligated, challenges at home, and growing concern about China, there is widespread recognition that Washington's priorities need to change.
While rhetoric about ending war is progress, action is still lacking. Thousands of U.S. troops remain in Afghanistan. More than a year after ISIS lost its territorial caliphate, thousands more are stationed in Iraq and Syria. More troops are deployed in the Middle East now than in early 2017. Drone strikes continue in Yemen and Somalia.
A foreign policy of restraint would entail the end to those wars; orderly exit from the Middle East; burden shifting in Europe; vast savings accruing to taxpayers; and a stronger, safer America.
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