Defense Priorities Defense Priorities
  • Policy Topics
    • Israel-Iran
    • Ukraine-Russia
    • NATO
    • China
    • Syria
  • Research
    • Briefs
    • Explainers
    • Reports
  • Programs
    • Grand Strategy Program
    • Military Analysis Program
    • Asia Program
    • Middle East Program
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Media
  • About
    • Mission & Vision
    • People
    • Jobs
    • Contact
  • Donate
Select Page
Home / China / Will China invade Taiwan under Trump? What experts think
China, Asia, Taiwan

November 7, 2024

Will China invade Taiwan under Trump? What experts think

In general, I don’t think U.S. presidential personalities or parties matter much to Chinese calculations. They have long assumed that U.S. military intervention is a possibility, and are building up both war-fighting and (nuclear) deterrence forces to cope with that perceived threat.

My sense is they are nearing a point, both on the conventional and nuclear side, that they think any U.S. president, whether Trump, Harris, or Biden, would think twice now.

It’s true that Trump has made a number of statements, including recently, suggesting that Taiwan could not be defended or even should not be defended.

So, there might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration.

However, it’s still worth keeping in mind that during the last Trump administration, he was surrounded by many China hawks, who would likely press for U.S. intervention in a Taiwan scenario.

Moreover, there could be somewhat of a “mad man” effect given Trump’s record for bombastic speech and occasionally emotive reactions.

In the end, I imagine such factors may balance out, so that the primary determinant will be national will and the actual balance of military power, which tends to increasingly favor Beijing.

It’s important to understand that China does not want to fight a war over Taiwan, so if the Trump administration adheres closely to the One China Policy and resists forms of military provocation (e.g. sending troops to Taiwan or undertaking joint exercises with Taiwan), then it is likely that Beijing will continue to live with the status quo.

Read at Newsweek

Featuring

Photo of Lyle Goldstein

Lyle
Goldstein

Director, Asia Program

Defense Priorities

More on Asia

op-edNATO, Alliances, Asia

Why America’s East Asian allies skipped the NATO summit

By Lyle Goldstein

July 2, 2025

op-edGrand strategy, China, Iran, North Korea, Russia

There is no ‘axis of autocracy’

By Daniel DePetris

July 1, 2025

op-edGrand strategy, Americas, China, Iran, Middle East, Russia

How not to do multipolarity

By Anthony Constantini

June 28, 2025

op-edChina, Asia, Israel‑Iran

Why China’s sitting on the Iran war sidelines

By Lyle Goldstein

June 25, 2025

In the mediaChina, Air power, Asia, Balance of power, Global posture, Land power, Naval power

What does China’s military gain from operating 2 aircraft carriers in second island chain?

Featuring Lyle Goldstein

June 13, 2025

op-edNorth Korea, Air power, Asia, Balance of power, Global posture, Land power, Naval power

Trump’s North Korea conundrum

By Daniel DePetris

June 12, 2025

Events on China

See All Events
virtualGreat power competition, Balance of power, China, Grand strategy, Middle East

Past Virtual Event: U.S.-China competition and the value of Middle East influence

June 10, 2025
virtualChina, Alliances, Balance of power, Diplomacy, Grand strategy, Russia

Past Virtual Event: China-Russia: Cooperation or a no-limits alliance?

April 3, 2025
virtualAsia, Basing and force posture, Burden sharing, China, Grand strategy

Past Virtual Event: Rethinking U.S. strategy in East Asia: do more bases mean more deterrence?

January 24, 2024

Receive expert foreign policy analysis

Join the hub of realism and restraint

Expert updates and analysis to enhance your understanding of vital U.S. national security issues

Defense Priority Mono Logo

Our mission is to inform citizens, thought leaders, and policymakers of the importance of a strong, dynamic military—used more judiciously to protect America’s narrowly defined national interests—and promote a realistic grand strategy prioritizing restraint, diplomacy, and free trade to ensure U.S. security.

  • About
  • For Media
  • Jobs
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Contact
© 2025 Defense Priorities All Right Reserved