2 renowned strategists say the U.S. should defend Taiwan with nuclear strikes. Experts say such talk is just a taste of what’s to come.

“It’s a dangerous line of thinking, and it’s extremely reckless,” said Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Initiative at Brown University.

He said such threats would only escalate tensions, not shock China into backing off from Taiwan as Kroenig and Weaver might hope.

Beijing has known for decades that the Pentagon may launch a nuclear first strike, said Goldstein. The US once floated nuclear retaliation in 1958 if China invaded Taiwan, and stationed nuclear weapons on the island until 1974.

When Goldstein visited China in early 2023, local experts reiterated to him that the country sees Washington as growing extremely aggressive, and still actively discusses how the US may launch a nuclear strike.

“Maybe Kroenig is right. Maybe China will say: ‘OK, we don’t want nuclear war, forget this whole thing, we’re not interested in Taiwan at all.’ But I don’t think so at all,” Goldstein said. “In fact, I think the opposite will happen.”