After more than two and a half years of conflict, it is becoming abundantly clear that Ukraine is not going to win the Russo-Ukrainian War. While it is also apparent that Russia will not achieve its maximalist goal of regime change in Kyiv, Ukraine will almost certainly fail to reconquer Crimea, the Donbas and most of the land occupied by Russia. The Ukrainian government, however, has refused to accept this reality and—with the tacit support of the West—has, out of desperation, engaged in a dangerous cycle of escalations. The latest, and most concerning of these, has been their recent invasion of Kursk.
Perplexingly, many throughout the West have cheered the Kursk incursion. Some seem to believe that it will weaken Vladimir Putin’s standing in Moscow, while others have suggested that the Ukrainian government could use occupied Kursk as a bargaining chip to get their own occupied lands back whenever Russia and Ukraine engage in serious negotiations. Finally, some simply seem to enjoy watching Russia flail and struggle.
Let us dispense with the latter first. Russia is indeed flailing and it is obviously embarrassing that Ukraine was able to punch so far into Russian territory. But the West should not let something akin to childish glee override their sense of strategy in any conflict (much less one now involving the invasion of a nuclear power). Those cheering should also keep in mind that Ukraine attacking areas with Russian civilians has hindered its ability to complain about attacks on its own civilians.
As for Kursk being used as a bargaining chip, it beggars belief that Russia will ever allow that plan to come to fruition. It does not take a Kremlinologist to understand that there is no universe in which Russia will crawl to the table, begging Ukraine for its land back. Ukraine’s government has, of course, made similar statements about refusing to negotiate for their own land. But Russia has significantly more money, people and therefore time to slowly take back their territory. Ukraine does not.
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