President Donald Trump has done more in the last eight weeks to shock Europe into taking its defense more seriously than the Biden administration did over its entire four-year tenure.
This isn’t meant to be some sycophantic bowing of the head to Trump and his MAGA movement, but rather a statement of fact. The evidence is all around us. In contrast to Joe Biden, Trump is not a traditional Atlanticist, views many of Washington’s security arrangements in Europe as either antiquated or unfair, and tends to scoff at the European theater writ-large as lazy teenagers who take their parent’s support for granted. He can be mean and downright nasty about it, but Trump, when combined with Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, is forcing European leaders to jettison the so-called peace dividend that dominated the continent for three decades. Germany reformed its debt break to make room for an additional €500 billion in its defense budget; France is aiming to boost its defense spending to at least 3 percent of GDP; and the European Union just released a new policy that permits members to devote more cash to their militaries without running afoul of the bloc’s deficit rules.
Europe’s renewed debate on national security, however, goes beyond conventional weapons. There is also an ongoing discussion among European leaders as to whether U.S. extended deterrence commitments are worth much anymore. In theory, Washington will defend its European allies with all elements in its military toolbox, up to the use of nuclear weapons if necessary. It’s an entirely abnormal arrangement, whereby a foreign country agrees to risk nuclear war against itself in order to protect an ally. The French in particular never bought into the concept; Charles de Gaulle, the founder of the modern-day French Republic, famously questioned in 1961 whether the Americans would actually sacrifice New York for Paris in the event of a war with the Soviet Union. His conclusion: no, they wouldn’t. Today, France possesses just short of 300 nuclear warheads.
If de Gaulle were alive today, he would be smiling earlobe to earlobe for being so astute. Trump’s perceived indifference to European security is causing nervousness in various European capitals who don’t happen to have their own nuclear weapons. And with the exception of London and Paris, none of them do.
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