By Rajan Menon and Daniel DePetris
Vladimir Putin’s 21 September mobilization order, which aims to deploy 300,000 reservists to Ukraine, and possibly as many as 1.2 million, is an act of desperation aimed at saving a faltering war that he now owns. But his military call-up is also a huge gamble. For 22 years Putin has solidified his rule through an implicit pact with the Russian people: don’t make political waves and you will live comfortably. His mobilization order has broken that pact, and many Russians are taking to the streets or running to the border to flee the country.
It’s not hyperbole to suggest that Putin is facing his biggest challenge since becoming president in 2000. A leader who once seemed infallible and irreplaceable suddenly appears vulnerable, so much so that the media is now speculating about whether Putin might lose power.
The honest answer is that no one knows for sure. But what can be said with reasonable certainty is that the hypothetical downfall of Putin, as morally satisfying as it would be, is unlikely to be simple and straightforward. Nor should anyone assume that a Russia without Putin would make the west more secure.
This piece was originally published in The Guardian on September 30, 2022. Read more HERE.