By Daniel DePetris
On paper, Russia could very well be considered one of the more formidable states in the international system. The country has more than 5,900 nuclear warheads, a permanent seat at the U.N. Security Council, and significant influence in world energy markets. Russian President Vladimir Putin's war of choice in Ukraine, however, has raised a critical question the strongman is too frightened to ask himself: Is Russia still a great power?
Before the conflict in Ukraine erupted in February 2022, Russia was widely seen as a force to be reckoned with. Sure, the Russian economy was smaller than Italy's. The Russian budget relied extensively on oil and gas exports. And the Russian military was largely untested in conventional warfare, with the Kremlin increasingly turning to mercenaries in locales like Mali, the Central African Republic, and Syria instead of professional soldiers. But there was a general assumption that Moscow had the capacity and motivation to effectively pursue their security interests—with force, if necessary.
Yet the geopolitical, economic, and military situation Russia is facing today, with its forces taking immense casualties on the battlefield and Putin ordering a partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists, suggests a declining power that is increasingly struggling to tread water.
This piece was originally published in Newsweek on September 30, 2022. Read more HERE.