FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
August 23, 2023
Contact: press@defensepriorities.org
WASHINGTON, DC—Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led a short-lived rebellion against Moscow’s military leadership in June, has reportedly died in a plane crash in Russia. Defense Priorities Director of Grand Strategy Rajan Menon issued the following statement in response:
“It has been hard to get beyond the official rosy Russian rendition of the war in Ukraine and to get a sense of the problems plaguing the Russian military, but Yevgeny Prigozhin’s scorching critique of Moscow’s ‘special military operation’ gave us some glimpses behind the curtain of spin. No longer: Prigozhin appears to have been killed in a plane crash in Russia.
“After founding and leading the Wagner Company, Prigozhin became even more famous—or depending on one’s point of view, notorious—for his blunt statements about the mismanagement of the war in Ukraine and his calls for the sacking of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. This culminated in a daring operation in June: Prigozhin and his Wagner fighters crossed into Russian territory from Ukraine, headed to Rostov (a city of one million in southern Russia and headquarters of the Southern Military District). He entered the city and its military base without firing a shot. The Wagner retinue then moved northward, reaching within 120 miles of Moscow, but then halted abruptly. Surprisingly, the group encountered no resistance. That led to speculation that Prigozhin’s criticism of the war effort had resonated within the senior ranks of the military, perhaps even the intelligence services. That narrative gained credibility when several senior military officers were detained, disappeared from view, or were replaced—notably General Sergei Surovikin, once the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, later the head of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, who was recently fired. Yet another surprise: Prigozhin did not meet the fate of those who turn against Putin: they tend to end up in prison or wind up dead. Prigozhin, by contrast, was exiled to Belarus, but then returned to Russia, even making an appearance on the sidelines of Putin’s Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg in July.
“There will be much speculation about whether the plane carrying Prigozhin crashed as the result of an accident or was shot down. Either way, it is, for the reasons noted above, a major political development, the consequence of which will remain unclear for some time. The nature of the reaction to Prigozhin’s death within the Russian political elite will tell us whether it represents a political victory for Putin or the start of something he may find hard to control.”
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