After President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel his envoys’ trip to Islamabad on April 25 and the apparent failure of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Pakistan, it is clear that after nearly nine weeks of war, military force has failed to shift the Islamic Republic’s bargaining position. In this context, the risk of an eventual full return to fighting, alongside worsening civilian harm and economic pain defining the conflict, remains high, even amid ongoing rumors of future talks. Ultimately, Washington should avoid any return to direct military conflict with Iran—regardless of the outcome of talks.
Initially, the indirect talks that kicked off on April 11 and spanned roughly 21 hours before collapsing did constitute a good-faith effort to end the fighting. Both sides understand the negative impacts of this war. For Washington, that includes major spikes in energy markets that will worsen inflation as the Trump administration faces an already sour attitude from the U.S. electorate on the eve of congressional elections. For Tehran, the war is existential in nature. Iran seeks to end the war on favorable terms to prevent another round of fighting and the further degradation of the country’s economic and security interests.
hat existential component for Iran, coupled with the challenges facing the United States, makes the conflict’s direction troubling for Trump. Having already carried out a mass bombing campaign and after his bombastic rhetoric of civilization erasure, the president’s options for escalation include ground operations or an expansion of the bombing campaign that would further allegations of plausible human rights violations at scale.
His decision to blockade Iranian ports just after the talks in Islamabad collapsed reflects a middle road within this dynamic. The move also represents a recognition that any such ground operation will put more American troops in harm’s way without guaranteeing a significant impact on Iranian imports and exports outside of another massive surge of assets to the region.
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