There’s a new Cold War in the Middle East, and neither side is winning

It appeared that the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was in danger of collapse before the ink was even dry. On Saturday morning, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) struck the MT Kiku, a Panama-flagged vessel travelling along the southern route near the Omani coast in the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump was livid, ordering two waves of retaliatory air strikes against Iranian military targets along the country’s coast. Iran, in turn, retaliated by sending a few drones and missiles towards Kuwait and Bahrain, none of which claimed casualties.

By the weekend’s close, however, Washington and Tehran agreed to halt their fire. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to meet Iranian officials in Qatar on Tuesday. The U.S. and Iran also agreed to establish deconfliction protocols, both to keep the Strait of Hormuz clear and to ensure instant communication in the event of another flare-up.

As much as Washington and Tehran say they aim to negotiate a comprehensive agreement on the latter’s nuclear programme over the next 60 days, it’s a good bet that the conflict will flare up again.