The continued success of Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel (USV) attacks on Russian naval facilities and warships has kept USVs in the defense analytical spotlight and naval analysts around the world, particularly those in China, are taking note.
Faced with ongoing attacks on its Black Sea Fleet stationed in Crimea, Russia has moved its fleet further away from Ukrainian missiles and USVs. Britain’s Defense Minister Grant Shapps remarked that, “Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea is now challenged.”
A January 2024 article in the Chinese defense periodical Naval and Merchant Ships, written by three analysts of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), entitled “How to Defend Harbors Against USVs?” focused on the emergent potential of USVs, noting that “the large-scale application of various types of USVs is already a new threat to modern naval warfare. USVs will bring new challenges to the development of traditional military ideas, theories of war, modes of combat, military organizational structures, weapons, and equipment.”
The PLAN analysts first identify five advantages that USVs have in combat: effective concealment, low cost to manufacture and use, strong destructive ability, intelligent modes of control, and their potential to operate autonomously. Moreover, through modular construction and the addition of different weapons systems, they incorporate “diversified attack modes.” We compiled a similar list of USV characteristics that had been identified by Chinese naval analysts in a spring 2023 article. When it comes to their destructive ability, the Chinese authors note that, “USVs are more dangerous than air strikes; compared with missiles, USV warheads have greater explosive power.” Furthermore, their low manufacturing cost allows them to be made and deployed at scale which means that USVs can, “harness wolf groups tactics to achieve greater destructive power.”
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