There was good news and bad news for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the weekend.
The good news: Ukraine will finally be receiving the F-16 fighter jets it so desperately wants. This is an especially welcoming development for Zelenskyy, who has spent a significant amount of time and attention traveling to Western capitals with a wish list of military equipment in his pocket. “F-16 will certainly give new energy, confidence and motivation to fighters and civilians,” Zelenskyy told Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the first European head of government to authorize a transfer of the aircraft. “I’m sure it will deliver new results for Ukraine and the entire Europe.”
The bad news, however, is that the risks outweigh the good. Despite the latest donations in Western military aid, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been slower and bloodier and more wearisome than many analysts and commentators expected. While Zelenskyy is doing what leaders do by putting up a positive front and insisting that his troops will, over time, wear down the Russian army, the current realities on the battlefield are undeniable: The Ukrainians are losing a lot of men and equipment trying to pierce fortifications the Russians have had months to construct.
The Ukrainians have recaptured about 81 square miles since early June, so the counteroffensive hasn’t been a total wash. Yet in a war of attrition as violently chaotic as the one in Ukraine, resources expended are just as important as any tactical territorial gains. If the Ukrainians are recapturing land at a high cost, one question arises: Do they have enough gas in the tank to keep what they have in the event the Russians themselves counterattack?
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