Donald Trump took to Truth Social this week to declare an “Economic D-Day” against Iran. Threatening what he branded the “most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country,” the President warned that any nation providing a financial lifeline to Tehran would face ruinous secondary sanctions. The objective of these proposed sanctions is clear: force the Islamic Republic to yield its chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz and capitulate to American terms. The chances of its success are also clear: near-zero.
It is a familiar reflex of American foreign policy—the belief that enough financial pressure can break any regime’s will. But as an answer to the standoff in the Persian Gulf, it is a dangerous delusion. Washington is operating on a fundamental misunderstanding of its adversary. Iran will not relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz because the country is virtually impervious to economic pain.
To grasp why maximum economic pressure fails in Tehran, both history and national character are important to understand. Iranians have lived under a web of international sanctions for most of the period since the 1979 Revolution. The country endured eight years of existential horror during the Iran-Iraq War—a conflict marked by horrific casualties, chemical weapons, and total economic isolation—without collapse.
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