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Home / Syria / Syria is doomed to instability
Syria, Middle East

December 19, 2024

Syria is doomed to instability

By Rajan Menon

The House of Assad endured for over half a century, but crumbled in 10 days. Ba’athism is dead and Abu Mohammed al-Jolani now finds himself the de facto leader of a government in Damascus, led by his rebel coalition Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It’s a denouement he may have dreamed of but likely never expected. For now, Jolani can bask in the euphoria and gratitude sweeping his country. But soon, he’ll have to meet Syrians’ pent-up desire for good governance and better lives. In a land as multicultural as Syria, perhaps the most urgent task involves proving his self-proclaimed tolerance. And many Syrians remain cautious, wondering whether his political conversion is little more than a tactical makeover.

In order to convince them, Jolani must create political stability while distancing himself from Assad-era repression. This means ending such practices as casting offenders into dungeons, common under both Bashar al-Assad and his father. It also means the disbanding of Assad’s security services. Nor will Jolani pardon any officials, civilian and military, who have committed egregious human rights violations. Syrians will want to see such offenders brought to justice: especially senior members of the military, the Ba’ath Party, and the mukhabarat (secret police). They will also want the hated shabiha (“ghosts”) to be held accountable. These citizens groups, armed and trained by the Assad regime, have been accused of kidnap, torture and murder on a vast scale. To deliver justice and accountability there must be new legal codes and a new judiciary with people who are both qualified and trusted by the public.

Read at UnHerd

Author

Photo of Rajan Menon

Rajan
Menon

Former Non-Resident Senior Fellow

Defense Priorities

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