Don’t bet on a Gaza ceasefire

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is riding high. His decision to short-circuit U.S. diplomacy with Tehran by bombing Iran’s nuclear sites, coupled with his successful attempt to enlist President Donald Trump in the effort, has paid off considerably for him over the short term. A final battle damage assessment notwithstanding, there’s no question that Iran’s main nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan were seriously damaged. Iran’s nuclear industrial base took a hit as well, with at least 10 of its nuclear scientists killed during the 12-day air campaign. The entire effort has given Netanyahu—who has been fighting for his political life since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack severely degraded his “Mr. Security” persona—a new lease on life.

Netanyahu’s short rise in the polls has generated a bevy of speculation that the prime minister now possesses the political flexibility to finally end the nearly 21-month-long war in Gaza, which can charitably be described as a long slog with an unclear end-point. President Trump added more speculation to the pile Tuesday, when he alleged that Israel “agreed to the necessary conditions” for a 60-day truce. Senior Israeli officials have claimed that denting Iran’s military power has opened up new possibilities for Israeli foreign policy in the Middle East. Netanyahu himself has teased the “many opportunities” that have been created now that Tehran has been dealt with. The Israeli premier’s meeting with the U.S. at the White House next week, and Trump’s call on Truth Social to end the war in Gaza with a ceasefire deal that releases hostages, is only adding to the anticipation.

So, is a groundbreaking deal on Gaza really in sight?

Read at The American Conservative