On February 5, 2026, the New START treaty, the last nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, will expire. Many will be glad to see it go, especially after Russia suspended participation in the treaty’s data-sharing and inspection mechanisms (but did not withdraw) in 2023.
But the treaty’s end brings few benefits and lots of risks to the United States, especially as Washington tries to stabilize relations with rivals like Russia and China. It’s probably too late to prevent the agreement’s demise, but the Trump administration could still take steps to mitigate some of the more serious potential consequences by sticking to New START’s caps and limitations, at least in the short term.
For those not paying attention, New START’s pending expiration may come as a surprise. But even those who have been watching closely would be forgiven for feeling confused about how we got here, preparing for the end of what most considered to be a mutually beneficial arrangement.
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