When John Ratcliffe, director of the CIA, visited Moscow earlier this week, he reportedly warned Russian officials against attacks targeting European neighbours. The surprise trip amplified already widespread fears across the continent that Vladimir Putin, frustrated with the lack of progress in Ukraine, would soon expand his war and “test Nato” with a strike aimed at Europe.
The risks of escalation between Europe and Russia are real and rising. But the prevailing narrative—that Putin sees a window of opportunity to undermine Nato’s credibility—misunderstands the drivers of that escalation. Retaliation and insecurity, not aggression, are the biggest causes of confrontation between Europe and Russia today, and reassurance, not military pressure, is the only way to stop it.
Concerns that long-standing tension between Russia and Nato’s European members would spiral out of control have gained momentum this summer, as Western support for Ukraine has increased and Russia’s hybrid war campaign has intensified. In European capitals, drone incursions into frontline states and cases of suspected Russian sabotage—such as mysterious explosions at munitions plants that support Ukraine—are seen as signs of Putin’s aggression. European leaders accuse Moscow of probing to find Nato’s weaknesses and planning a future invasion of European territory.
Author
Events on Ukraine-Russia
