Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said he agreed “in principle” to a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine. The conditions he laid out, however, makes it clear he is not interested in any cessation of hostilities.
His actions, on the contrary, say he is interested in continuing the fight and winning the war on the battlefield.
That’s not to say he isn’t genuinely willing to conduct diplomacy with Trump. If Putin is able to get a deal he can live with and attain through negotiations what he feels he must have to secure his western flank, he will. But we must all be clear-eyed that Putin won’t make diplomatic concessions, from a position of strength. Thus, if he is not offered the conditions he deems necessary for Russian security, he will continue fighting until he seizes by force of arms what he wants.
That is the key dilemma that too few in the United States and Europe understand or are willing to acknowledge: Russia is in the dominant military position and doesn’t need to negotiate to attain its political objectives (security on its western borders). Ukraine needs a negotiated settlement to avoid a total military defeat.
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