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Home / Iran / Provoking a war with Iran could be a deadly miscalculation for Trump
Iran, Middle East

February 12, 2026

Provoking a war with Iran could be a deadly miscalculation for Trump

By Rosemary Kelanic

Once again, President Trump is steering the U.S. toward a perilous and unnecessary confrontation with Iran.

In January, Trump threatened to topple the Iranian regime for violently crushing protests. Now, as U.S. forces amass in the Middle East, his rationale for pressuring Iran has shifted.

Trump is demanding new concessions from the regime, including caps on Iran’s missile program and the total removal of enriched uranium from the country. He is also threatening consequences “far worse” than last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer. The president’s ultimate goals in the region remain unclear, as are the military measures he might adopt, which could include airstrikes, a naval blockade, or even regime change.

The risks of escalation are grave, with each side poised to misjudge the other’s determination.

Read at The Hill

Author

Rosemary
Kelanic

Director, Middle East Program

Defense Priorities

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