Following a series of escalatory tit-for-tat strikes last week, President Trump informed Congress on Friday that the war with Iran is back on. On Monday, Trump vowed to reinstate the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and impose a 20 percent charge on all cargo moving through the strait. This is the wrong move. If the ceasefire is dead and negotiations are at an impasse, then the U.S. should walk away from this pointless war, not double down on it. Trump should declare victory and be done with it.
The previous round of fighting demonstrated that the U.S. is (thankfully) unwilling to use the military force necessary to achieve its maximalist goals of regime change and retrieving Iran’s enriched uranium. Just like before this war started, Iran poses no threat to U.S. security, and war with Tehran damages U.S. interests. The only major vital interest at stake for the U.S. now is ensuring the free flow of oil through the strait, which will help stave off additional negative economic consequences. That matters just as much to Gulf states, who are working to form a new regional security architecture that includes Iran and opens the strait.
Trump has declared victory over Iran numerous times, noting how the U.S. took out much of Iran’s top leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, sank Iran’s navy, and set back its nuclear program. Trump can tout these tactical victories. He is uniquely capable of compartmentalizing the massive losses incurred because of the war, convincing his supporters to do so, and moving on.
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