On paper, the balance of power between the United States and Iran was never a contest. When President Donald Trump chose to initiate a full-scale war, Washington possessed unmatched airpower, precision-guided munitions, and an economic apparatus capable of squeezing opponents to the brink.
But war is not fought on paper. It is fought in physical space, defined by geography, industrial capacity, and the stark laws of military attrition.
Five months into this conflict, a sober analysis reveals a truth that Washington’s foreign policy establishment refuses to stomach: America’s war against Iran has already been lost at the strategic level.
Nothing we do from this point forward can reverse that outcome. All we can do now is limit the damage—or refuse to acknowledge reality and make the cost of failure worse.
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