Europe believes it is ready for Donald Trump 2.0. Having survived one Trump administration, European policymakers believe they have a recipe for navigating a repeat. Their confidence, however, is unwarranted. Focused on the wrong goals and distracted by political crises, Europe is far from equipped for the challenges of Trump’s second term as U.S. president.
Most significantly, European bureaucrats have yet to internalize the urgency and extent of the changes that will be required in military spending and strategy. Bribes and flattery may mollify Trump temporarily, but neither is likely to derail his plans to shift U.S. military commitments away from Europe. Europe may soon find itself exposed, lacking both the U.S. security blanket and a viable alternative of its own.
For Trump and his advisors, European complacency poses a challenge to one of their core objectives: shifting Europe’s defense burden onto NATO allies. But the new administration does have some levers it can use to force Europe out of its reverie and signal the seriousness of its intentions: reducing the U.S. military footprint in Europe decisively early in his term and pushing security responsibilities onto European Union member states.
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