By Daniel DePetris
Two weeks after taking overall command of Russian forces in Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin (known as "General Armageddon") shared a hard truth with Russian state media. Tough decisions, he said, would have to be made if the military situation in Kherson degenerated. By "tough decisions," Surovikin wasn't specific, but the implication was that at some point Russian commanders may have no choice but to order a controlled withdrawal from Kherson, located on the western bank of the Dnipro River.
That time has apparently arrived. On Nov. 9, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu took Surovikin's advice and agreed to pull Russian troops out of the city, redeploying them across the river to the east bank, where stronger defensive lines are being established. Although the Russians spent the previous weeks drawing down their forces, evacuating civilians deeper into Russian-occupied territory and removing the collaborationist administration out of the city, the news came as a shock to Ukrainians, who have spent months methodically (and painfully) destroying the supply lines, ammunition depots, and command-and-control facilities Russia needs to sustain a presence. Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, was so dumbfounded about the Russian departure that he didn't believe it as first: "We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight," Podolyak tweeted.
Russia's decision to pull out of Kherson came as a surprise for another reason—this same decision was mulled over in September and ultimately overruled by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who didn't want to order yet another withdrawal at a time when Russian troops were frantically running away from their positions in Kharkiv. After all, Kherson was far more important to the Russians than Kharkiv ever was. The agricultural oblast is the southernmost territory leading into Crimea, which Russia annexed eight years earlier. The Kakhovka dam, responsible for Crimea's water supply and about as large as the Great Salt Lake in Utah, was also only about 45 miles up the river from Kherson. While the Russians still control the dam, the impending Ukrainian capture of Kherson will improve the chances of eventually retaking this crucial facility. It's hard to see the Russians giving it away without a fight.
This piece was originally published in Newsweek on November 10, 2022. Read more HERE.