By Quinn Marschick
U.S.-China competition for influence in the Indo-Pacific has been on full display as officials from both countries—including President Joe Biden and General Secretary Xi Jinping—attend the G20 in Southeast Asia. Having secured a third term, Xi's desire to achieve the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" will grow. The White House appears to believe China seeks to overturn the international order and that it would start with controlling the Indo-Pacific. This is misguided. U.S. policy should recognize that China is naturally constrained from dominating Asia.
Simply put, the Asian continent is too big for any single country—including China—to control. China's geographic position prevents effective power projection. It is hemmed in on all sides. With mountains and deserts in the west, deserts and tundra to the north, and an ocean to the east, Beijing is unable to use the Washington-style hard power playbook to exert influence.
Moreover, the "stopping power of water" would prove a major hurdle to any attempted Chinese invasion of Asia's island states—including U.S. territories, U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines, and Taiwan. Amphibious operations are extremely difficult. China has no recent experience sending massive numbers of troops across large bodies of water. A more advanced People's Liberation Army is not guaranteed to succeed in an amphibious assault.
This piece was originally published in Newsweek on November 17, 2022. Read more HERE.