By Daniel DePetris
In terms of open, in-depth deliberation, Putin failed across the board. He assumed the Ukrainian state was a brittle, artificial organism whose army and state structures could be crushed and co-opted. He confidently bought into the advice of his generals, like Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who assumed 140,000 Russian troops could swallow up the largest country in Europe (outside Russia itself) and the sixth largest in population. Putin thought threats of escalation would deter the U.S. and its NATO partners from providing Kyiv with the weapons, like HIMARS rocket launchers, air defense systems and heavy battle tanks, that could disrupt the Russian army’s logistics and ammunition dumps.
Each and every one of those assumptions were upended. The result: Approximately 180,000 Russian troops have been killed in action, according to Norway’s army chief, a number more than 12 times what the Soviet Red Army sustained during its decadelong adventure in Afghanistan.
This piece was originally published in MSNBC on February 24, 2023. Read more HERE.